28th January 2021, 7:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 28th January 2021, 10:06 AM by TRUC. Edited 3 times in total.)
Day 12
Overall a pretty rough day, with 5 HORRIBLE ROLLS
Most people did not get the dice swinging the way they needed it too, unfortunately...
Will do things a bit differently today, individual commentary with statistical chance of winning (based on everyone's own average). No one is mathematically out yet to win any prize, but most will need a big turnover !
----------------------
@ExplosionZ (1st) - His lowest roll in a while, but he certainly won't mind, as it is still a 78. And with that kind of streak (512 in 6 days for 0.04%), he's now in first place overall.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 53,5 (44.65%)
@Atari4600 (2nd) - He managed to roll high enough to complete his comeback as well, and steal 2nd place.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 58,5 (35.70%)
@Dan-83 (3rd) - That one hurts. Still in the top 3, not too far from the leaders, and with a bit of a margin over those below. Anything can happen here.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 62 (30.03%)
@Robo (4th) - Another slight drop in the rankings, but still in a good place to hope for a prize in this chaotic group.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 68,5 (20.80%)
@TRUC (5th) - Somehow survives with an average roll, slowly closing the gap with top 3.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 80,5 (8.20%)
@edetarod (6th) - Another dream crushing roll, as his lead was burned to ashes, but there is still hope.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 87,5 (3.51%)
@FDX3 (7th) - 69, nice. A bounceback from yesterday good enough to keep him into contention.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 88 (3.25%)
@4h3y (8th) - While a little further from the top, 665 is pretty much the limit of where catching up with the current averages remains realistic. Lower than that, one would need the leaders to get bad breaks.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 100 (0.01%)
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 62 (0.71%)
----------------------
@Alex.L (9th) - 77 is a good roll to try and climb the steep hill to the top.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 43 (0.37%)
@Camer the Dragon (10th) - Yikes. Last 2 days were very rough.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 35,5 (0.25%)
@"platform guy" (11th) - Another 2 roll from the living roller coaster, yet he's bearing a perfectly balanced average of 50,5. Sometimes luck simply cannot be described or understood.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 32,5 (0.21%)
@MoonFiredk (12th) - This one also hurts, tough luck for these 3 lads today.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 32 (0.20%)
@Janelle (13th) - Another big leap in the wrong direction. Platform guy has convinced other people to follow his risky technique it seems.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 30 (0.18%)
@Birgir Kul (14th) - The 2nd half of this event was not on their side. Last person with some hope to reach top 3.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 28 (0.15%)
----------------------
@Dexterity (15th) - Down from here, contestants better start praying for low rolls. Surprisingly, he's one of only 3 who managed this feat on this half of the contest.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 65 (0.26%)
@YOSUP72845 (16th) - Getting average rolls will not cut it for a shot at the prize.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 64,5 (0.26%)
@new bat pr2 (17th) - Finally a good roll after days of misery... sadly, this is far from ideal at this point.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 64 (0.27%)
@Addy (18th) - It's hard to believe, but he's on a relatively good streak of rolls. Sadly, that started after the prize for last place was announced. Tough luck, but the game is not over.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 60,5 (0.32%)
@Colind (19th) - His name was near the top of the leaderboard not so long ago. This 83 is a long lost vestige of that era, but he better return to lower rolls in the future.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 57,5 (0.37%)
----------------------
@bazooka (20th) - 44 is not too bad under those circumstances, as it leaves him in a realistic spot to finish last. Still standing in a small no man's land though, he might need help from bottom 2 to win this prize.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 32 (0.80%)
---> Estimate average needed to clinch last: 5,5 (0.55%)
@ariana (21th) - Another terrible roll to keep the battle for last place going. It's gonna be very close.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch last: 25,5 (12.75%)
@Ashley766 - As good as Addy's rolls have been since the lucky loser prize announcement, her rolls have been equally as bad on the same days. Today was no exception, as she keeps a hardly fought last place.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch last: 36,5 (26.28%)
![[Image: MAuEcv.jpg]](https://snipboard.io/MAuEcv.jpg)
Overall a pretty rough day, with 5 HORRIBLE ROLLS
Most people did not get the dice swinging the way they needed it too, unfortunately...
Will do things a bit differently today, individual commentary with statistical chance of winning (based on everyone's own average). No one is mathematically out yet to win any prize, but most will need a big turnover !
----------------------
@ExplosionZ (1st) - His lowest roll in a while, but he certainly won't mind, as it is still a 78. And with that kind of streak (512 in 6 days for 0.04%), he's now in first place overall.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 53,5 (44.65%)
@Atari4600 (2nd) - He managed to roll high enough to complete his comeback as well, and steal 2nd place.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 58,5 (35.70%)
@Dan-83 (3rd) - That one hurts. Still in the top 3, not too far from the leaders, and with a bit of a margin over those below. Anything can happen here.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 62 (30.03%)
@Robo (4th) - Another slight drop in the rankings, but still in a good place to hope for a prize in this chaotic group.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 68,5 (20.80%)
@TRUC (5th) - Somehow survives with an average roll, slowly closing the gap with top 3.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 80,5 (8.20%)
@edetarod (6th) - Another dream crushing roll, as his lead was burned to ashes, but there is still hope.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 87,5 (3.51%)
@FDX3 (7th) - 69, nice. A bounceback from yesterday good enough to keep him into contention.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 88 (3.25%)
@4h3y (8th) - While a little further from the top, 665 is pretty much the limit of where catching up with the current averages remains realistic. Lower than that, one would need the leaders to get bad breaks.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch top 3: 100 (0.01%)
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 62 (0.71%)
----------------------
@Alex.L (9th) - 77 is a good roll to try and climb the steep hill to the top.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 43 (0.37%)
@Camer the Dragon (10th) - Yikes. Last 2 days were very rough.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 35,5 (0.25%)
@"platform guy" (11th) - Another 2 roll from the living roller coaster, yet he's bearing a perfectly balanced average of 50,5. Sometimes luck simply cannot be described or understood.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 32,5 (0.21%)
@MoonFiredk (12th) - This one also hurts, tough luck for these 3 lads today.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 32 (0.20%)
@Janelle (13th) - Another big leap in the wrong direction. Platform guy has convinced other people to follow his risky technique it seems.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 30 (0.18%)
@Birgir Kul (14th) - The 2nd half of this event was not on their side. Last person with some hope to reach top 3.
---> MAXIMUM average 3rd place needs to still have a chance: 28 (0.15%)
----------------------
@Dexterity (15th) - Down from here, contestants better start praying for low rolls. Surprisingly, he's one of only 3 who managed this feat on this half of the contest.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 65 (0.26%)
@YOSUP72845 (16th) - Getting average rolls will not cut it for a shot at the prize.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 64,5 (0.26%)
@new bat pr2 (17th) - Finally a good roll after days of misery... sadly, this is far from ideal at this point.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 64 (0.27%)
@Addy (18th) - It's hard to believe, but he's on a relatively good streak of rolls. Sadly, that started after the prize for last place was announced. Tough luck, but the game is not over.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 60,5 (0.32%)
@Colind (19th) - His name was near the top of the leaderboard not so long ago. This 83 is a long lost vestige of that era, but he better return to lower rolls in the future.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 57,5 (0.37%)
----------------------
@bazooka (20th) - 44 is not too bad under those circumstances, as it leaves him in a realistic spot to finish last. Still standing in a small no man's land though, he might need help from bottom 2 to win this prize.
---> MINIMUM average last place needs to still have a chance: 32 (0.80%)
---> Estimate average needed to clinch last: 5,5 (0.55%)
@ariana (21th) - Another terrible roll to keep the battle for last place going. It's gonna be very close.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch last: 25,5 (12.75%)
@Ashley766 - As good as Addy's rolls have been since the lucky loser prize announcement, her rolls have been equally as bad on the same days. Today was no exception, as she keeps a hardly fought last place.
---> Estimate average needed to clinch last: 36,5 (26.28%)
If you're reading this, it means I have not made a cool signature yet and you should be proud of yourself.
